Open Theses

Now- and forecasting are important components in answering econometric questions. At DoCMA (Dortmund Center for Data-based Media Analysis), two indices, UPI (uncertainty perception indicator) and IPI (inflation perception indicator), were developed to measure the presence of uncertainty and inflation reporting in German newspapers, partitioned by different topics.

The aim of this thesis is to assess to what extent the (sub-) indices improve the predictive power of established econometric models.

Literature (as well as references in the following papers):

• Rieger, J., Hornig, N., Schmidt, T. and Müller, H. (2023). Early Warning Systems? Building Time Consistent Perception Indicators for Economic Uncertainty and Inflation Using Efficient Dynamic Modeling. Accepted for MUFin'23. Link. GitHub.
• Müller, H., Rieger, J., Schmidt, T. and Hornig, N. (2022). An Increasing Sense of Urgency: The Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) to 30 June 2022 - a Research Note. DoCMA Working Paper #12. DOI. GitHub.
  Previous editions: Pressure is high (04/30/2022), A German Inflation Narrative (02/28/2022).
• Müller, H., Rieger, J. and Hornig, N. (2022). Vladimir vs. the Virus - a Tale of two Shocks. An Update on our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) to April 2022 - a Research Note. DoCMA Working Paper #11. DOI. GitHub.
  Previous editions: "Riders on the Storm" (Q1 2021), "We’re rolling" (Q4 2020), "For the times they are a-changin'" (Q3 2020).
• Shrub, Y., Rieger, J., Müller, H. and Jentsch, C. (2022). Text data rule - don't they? A study on the (additional) information of Handelsblatt data for nowcasting German GDP in comparison to established economic indicators. Ruhr Economic Papers #964. Link.

Additional information on the indicators:

• IPI
  • Handelsblatt (07/25/2022)
  • Handelsblatt (05/24/2022)
  • Handelsblatt (03/10/2022)

If you are interested in writing this thesis, please contact Jonas Rieger.